Conflict: Middle East Political Simulator
Brought to you by Belgarath
Note: These are the IBM docs but most of it 
      should be relevant to the Amiga version.

THE REAL WORLD 

Since World War II, we have been told that no major wars
have occurred. In reality, there have been many small
scale confrontations all over the world which have not
developed into larger wars mainly because of Super-
power pressure and fear of nuclear holocaust. But, the
Superpowers are in decline. Japanese economic strength
increases the U.S. deficit. New Soviet leaden are concentrating
more on internal problems than foreign affairs.
The days of purely military campaigns have gone. All
modern battles have definite political objectives.

THE WORLD OF THE MIDDLE EAST
Today, the Middle East is as unstable and dangerous as
any time since the Crusades. The Superpowers encourage
their fighting cocks and try out their state-of-the art
military gadgets It is the potential cradle for World War III.

The main regional power is Saudi-Arabia, a country too
rich to be used as a pawn by the Superpowers. Egypt,
Syria. Jordan and Iraq play central roles in the constant
power struggles. Jordan has adopted sly leadership to
keep it secure. Libya and Iran lie on the western and eastern
edges of the area: both have been sharp thorns in
the side of the U.S. government.

In the middle of all this mayhem lies one of the smallest
and most controversial countries on Earth - Israel. Born
in 1948 this nation state started life fighting. Conflicts with
the surrounding states led to war in 1956, 1957 and 1973.

Despite problems with Palestinian people and ridiculously
high inflation, Israel has emerged as the strongest power
- due. in part, to U.S. assistance.

THE WORLD OF CONFLICT

The year is 1997. After twenty years of relative peace in
the Middle East, tensions are starting to mount as the
ever present fears of re-armament and nuclear testings
are confirmed. The situation is brought to a head with
the assassination of the Israeli Prime Minister on December
29, 1996. That same day you are sworn into office
as leader of Israel.

As the New Year begins, you set out to achieve your aim:
to force the collapse of neighboring states while keeping
Israel alive and monitoring the conflict between Iran
and Iraq. Direct military defeat, political destabilization
or general pressure can all lead to the collapse of your
neighbors-But remember, World opinion has to remain
favorable and Superpowers persuaded to help your
cause. All the while the internal health of the Israeli state
has to be maintained as your opponents seek your
downfall.

IBM Loading instructions omitted

CONTROLS

UP/DOWN       Choose menu option
CURSOR KEYS

RETURN        Complete menu option selection

SHIFT-S Save the current game at newspaper
        screen

SHIFT-B Call up a report gathered from official
        sources summarizing diplomatic and
        intelligence positions

SHIFT-E Quit the current game

HOME    Takes you to the top of the menu

END     Takes you to the bottom of the menu

CONFLICT is entirely menu-driven. Use the Up/Down
cursor keys to choose a menu option and press RETURN
to select. HOME moves you to the top of the menu and
END moves you to the bottom of the menu.

If you loaded a mouse driver before CONFLICT use the
left mouse button to make menu selections.

At any stage. SHIFT-E quits the current game. Game positions
may also be saved and loaded from the title screen
menu.

PLAYING THE GAME
Good Morning, Prime Minister - Here Are The Papers

Each game turn covers the period of one month, and
a turn involves you in making decisions on diplomatic.
intelligence, security and military matters.

At the start of each turn. you have the opportunity to
review the news. as reported in the world’s press. Distortion,
fabrication and propaganda all creep into the
columns of newspapers. but they provide a sound indication
of how the rest of the world views your exploits.
Use the news to gauge world opinion on the events that
took place since the end of the previous turn, but don’t
rely too heavily on the press for accurate information
you have Mossad, a massive intelligence organization
at your disposal.

At this stage, it is possible to save the current game position
by pressing SHIFT-S.

Diplomacy And Intelligence

Down to serious business-find out what is really going
on around you. By selecting a country, you can call up
a brief summary of official news, collated from official
sources rather than from the press. Pressing SHIFT-B
allows you to call up a report which summarises diplomatic
and intelligence positions - check out each neighboring
state.

Then, on a more general level, your Foreign Office can
offer a measure of current conditions in the form of Prestige
and Tension indicators. Israel’s prestige is likely to
rise as you assert more military or political strength. which
will make you more popular with your people and raise
your country’s profile in the world. Tension rises as tanks
roll and insults fly - rising tension may or may not be
to your advantage. but it is wise to remember that the
probability of nuclear holocaust increases as tension
builds.

The United Nations Security Council may step in and call
a July summit if tension gets too high - and a variety
of proposals may be made including ending current wars
and setting up a Palestinian homeland.

The Diplomatic Approach

Once you have appraised yourself of the picture it's time
to start making decisions. Diplomatic relations with neighbouring
states influence the options that become available
to you later in the game. Bear in mind that it will prove
impossible to invade a country if you have built up excellent
diplomatic relations with its leaders - your generals
would refuse to mobilise forces against a very friendly
country, your Foreign Office staff would rebel and World
opinion would line up against Israel. But diplomatic rela
tions need to be constantly worked on and improved if
your aim is to make even the most limited pact with a
country.

By choosing to reduce diplomatic relations with a country,
you risk starting a conflict - which may all be part
of your strategy. On the other hand. by fostering relations
it might be possible to sign a military agreement. But by
signing an agreement with one of your neighbours, you
might be contributing to another country’s war effort.

Diplomacy is a tangled web at the best of times and in
the best of conditions. but as you might expect. relations
between Arab countries and Israel are always tentative.

Covert Operations

Intelligence, both military and political, is vital to the suc
cessful running of any nation state. Israel has built up one
of the most successful intelligence services in the world
- Mossad - and as Prime Minister you would be well
advised to make good use of it.

During peace time, Middle Eastern countries are continually
embroiled in covert activities aimed at destabilising
their neighbours. This normally involves giving financial 
support to insurgent functions which war against an
opposing government. Reports from the Psychopolitical
Warfare Unit indicate the internal stability of your neighbours,
and you must decide whether to support the
government or hasten its demise. Israeli funds can be
diverted to insurgent groups working inside other countries,
or you can choose to protect another government
by attempting to disrupt the activities of insurgents. As
the game develops, more powerful covert strategies will
come within your reach - it may be possible to assassinate
the leader of another country, or start a coup.

In the final analysis, it is not important what causes a
government to collapse. Your aim is to achieve domination
by fair means or foul. and once a government has
collapsed, it cannot recover again within the timespan
of the game.

Policy Decisions

After dealing with diplomatic and intelligence matters, it's
time to develop your long and short-term strategies. With
an eye on your defense budget. you need to maintain
the security of Israel’s borders while building and deploying 
your military forces.

Buying Arms

Weaponry is available from four sources: America,
France. Britain and a private arms dealer. Dealing with
your suppliers involves a special kind of diplomacy -
they will only offer wide range of choice if they are sure
you have the resources to pay and if you can convince
them that you intend to keep buying from them. Forward
planning is also needed, as equipment is usually shipped
at the start of the following turn. although weapons
sourced from the private dealer can take two months to
arrive.

Consistency and lots of money is the key to achieving
good relations with an arms dealer, but bear in mind that
each trader has different motives. America, for instance.
is unlikely to sell you high-tech equipment later in the
game if you started off buying arms from the independent
arms dealer, or if your international prestige fails to
rise If you start acting too aggressively, the Senate may
enforce an arms embargo and the French are likely to
fall into line with such an initiative. The British are happy
to Sell to you, but don’t have a wide range on offer. The
independent dealer couldn’t care less about embargos
on international arms sales.

Reviewing and Deploying Forces

Selecting the review option reveals the forces you have
available, lists the arms you have ordered that have not
yet arrived, and shows how much money you have spent
on arms deals. A readout at the bottom left of the screen
indicates your fortunes in war - the further it moves to
the right, the better you are doing in a border war, but
when it moves close to the left you are about to be
overrun.

The Israeli Defense Force is divided into 7 brigades of
20.000 soldiers, and each brigade contains a mix of
heavy and light infantry Tank brigades, tighter squadrons
and S.A.M. batteries may also be deployed separately
if you wish to strengthen a position. The most aggressive
options only become available when diplomatic relations
with other countries are very poor.

Small troop movements can be explained away with
excuses, and attract less attention, but only a full-scale
deployment allows all types of forces, including fighter
planes, to be sent to a border Before the fighting starts
you can strike bomb specific targets - which upsets the
West, but stirs matters up seriously! Once fighting starts.
your generals are unwilling to release troops for another
theatre of conflict. you need to make sure that a constant
supply of military hardware is available for your
generals to draw on to replace combat losses.

Starting a war may lead to an arms embargo, so set up
links with the independent dealer or stockpile arms before
going into battle.

Insurgency

Just as you seek to destabilise your neighbours, so they
seek to destabilise your government by funding the P.L.O.,
etc. If things are not going well for you, the main focus
of resentment will be found in the West Bank and Gaza
Strip, and it is advisable to keep a brigade of soldiers
there to police the region and deal with insurgents. But
that leaves you with one less brigade to deploy to the
borders.

Nuclear War

At the start of the game, Israel does not have a nuclear
capability, but continual funding of a nuclear program
will eventually yield a working tactical nuclear missile.

Think carefully before using The Bomb - a chain of
retaliatory strikes may be set off drawing in the Superpowers
and leading to global nuclear war A nuclear
capability can act as a deterrent, however, so don’t dismiss
it out of hand.

And remember to keep an eye on the Iran/Iraq conflict
- it can easily escalate to nuclear war. which will draw
in all the Middle Eastern countries and lead to the destruction
of the world.

Finances

At the end of every year you can increase defense spending 
and increase the size of the army. For economic masons.
remaining on good terms with the American
government is advisable. American aid can be significant.
Bear in mind, that the more aggressive Israel
appears to be, the less aid you are likely to be offered.
So it’s wise to avoid starting wars until after the December
aid has been received.

THE OTHER NATIONS
To achieve your aims, you must understand a little about
your opponents and their relations to each other.

The Arab Republic of Egypt

The Egyptian army is the largest in the game being about
twice the size of the Israeli army. Their soldiers are competent
and the government behind them is solid. It is
much too strong to destabilize Egypt’s only problems
come from you and Libya but Libya cannot survive an
attack unaided. Little nuclear research is thought to go
on the government not being keen to accelerate a nuclear
arms race in the face of its own conventional superiority.
Since the Camp David agreement in the ’70s. Egypt’s
feeling about Israel have become ambivalent: It is happy
to be at peace with Israel but not at the cost of long term
security.

Syria

Syria are the central power of the game funded by the
Soviets and the main adversary of Israel. Syria may try
to take on Lebanon or Iraq in any game before coming
around to attack Israel. Religious feeling can be manipulated
to agitate extreme Islamic elements often excluded
from government. The Syrians have had limited success
in the ‘73 war on the Golan Heights and are most dangerous
when attacking Israel with other Arabs in support.

Lebanon

The weakest power in the game Lebanon and should be
Israel’s first target. Politically unstable, it could collapse
in its own time of its own accord. Israel’s history of meddling
in Lebanons affairs has left it with a splintered leadership
and many different opposing factions.

The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan

Though not a large power, it has a strong government
and keeps alive by deals and staying neutral. Jordans
support of other Arabs in battle is patchy. They are keen
to use the P.L.O. as a stick to keep Israel weak.

Iraq

A possible ally against Syria but more likely to be caught
up in endless combat with Iran. Iraq has a history of
nuclear development and problems with the Kurdish
community.

The Islamis Republic of Iran

Since the Shah left in ‘79, Iran has shown the world the
meaning of religious extremism. The internal fighting
between “moderate” and fundamentalist elements does
not assist in estimating the strength of the regime. The
large armed forces with fanatic soldiers are a problem
only for Iraq and without intervention, war with them can
eventually start a Holocaust.

The Libyan Arab Republic

Unstable and dangerous within, but normally demolished
by Egypt at some time during the game. Always a possible
ally for Israel in theory but the Libyan governments
chaotic and antagonistic nature normally defeats diplomats.
Apart from terrorism. the Libyans also believe that
“The Sword of Islam” i.e. nuclear weapons, are a method
of achieving their aims whatever they are.

AN EXAMPLE TURN

“So I am the new leader. What now?” Read the
newspapers. Then go into the news menu.

“How about picking a fight with Egypt?" Choose Egypt
from the news menu then pick Diplomacy. Choose the
option to create an artificial incident. That should upset
them.

“Now how about an invasion?” Well, its a bit early now,
but by going into the Policy menu and then into the Strategic
Action menu. you can see what sort of measures
you can take. Certainly troops can be deployed. Perhaps
a strike bombing. Once troops are deployed and relation?.
are reduced, an invasion can be planned.

Let's deal with the Palestinians!” Choose the Palestinian
Problem menu. You can see that no trouble is brewing
yet. but why wait? Post a brigade there now.

"Let's nuke Libya!” This is not a diplomatically sensible
option: also we don’t have a working missile as such yet
But if you choose Nuclear Club from the policy menu
and fund the nuclear program in a few months time you
might have a working missile.

“What now?" Well, you could Purchase Arms and get
a surveillance aircraft-the U.S. will sell the AWACS -
which is suggested by your procurement advisors. After
this choose Next Turn and wait for next months papers.

“Hey! The Syrians have publicly denounced Israel!” Well
maybe they don’t like you. Just make sure you keep a
few brigades free in case they try anything. Check the
other news headlines. Now go into this new menu and
check diplomacy and also intelligence to see the strength
of the governments. Start funding Syrias internal
opponents.

“The Egyptians are being aggressive towards us!” Hardly
surprising, but you definitely don’t want conflict against
Egypt and Syria or this could be a very short game.

WINNING

To win one game of CONFLICT means you have handled
one possible scenario well. But each game of CONFLICT
puts the Middle East in a different conditions some
more dangerous to Israel than others A true test of skill
is to win many games with a range of styles as well as
high scores.

ABOUT CONFLICT

Game versus reality

Political events in the Middle East continue to less effected
by Superpower interests and more influenced by inter.
regional conflict. America is already showing a larger
degree of neutrality when it comes to dealing with Israel
and the P.L.O. and the Soviets are clearly not prepared
to keep direct military interests in the area-Afghanistan
is on Iran’s borders.

CONFLICT represents a prediction of what life in the Mid-
dle East may be like in the near future if these trends continue.
Some aspects of the game. while being enjoyable,
may not square up to reality. To answer some questions:

“Why can’t I launch a surprise invasion while relations
with a country are good?” - Because if it is fairly obvious
that an invasion was being planned, relations would
not be good. Conversely, good relations have to be
backed up by the closure of offensive airstrips, the swapping
of intelligence, etc.. Syria would hardly launch an
invasion of Israel if hundreds of Syrian tourists were sun-
bathing in Eilat!

“Why am I using 1980s hardware in 1997?" -Author’s
license. But in fact, most battles are fought with old
weapons because they work. In any case, the range of
weaponry available is consistent.

“Why can’t I bomb Iraqi nuclear reactors?’ - A good
question since Israel has previously done exactly this.
But the problem of flying over foreign air space is becoming
more marked and it is not necessarily the only option
to avoid nuclear proliferation during (say) an Iraq-Iran war
in CONFLICT

“What is and is not Israel?" - CONFLICT assumes Israel
has departed from most of the previously occupied territories
e.g. the Golan Heights.

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